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Proteste Violente la Chisinau

Deja este destul de cunoscut în toata lumea, nu numai în Moldova ce s-a petrecut la Chişinău pe 7 aprilie 2009. Chiar prima pagină a cotidianului New York Times de ieri descria detaliat, şi destul de echidistant aş zice eu, „protestele” transformate în vandalism din capitala Moldovei. Azi dimineaţa au apărut şi primele cadre la lumina zilei a urmărilor devastatoare după “protestele” de ieri. Folosesc aici ghilimele din mai multe considerente: (1) violenţa care a urmat dupa primele manifestaţii (modeste) de luni pune sub semn mare de întrebare credibilitatea acestor manifestaţii; (2) motivele care au fost folosite pentru organizarea „flashmob-ului” pman-esc au mai multe faţade, implică şi aşteptări diferite din partea grupurilor respectiv-împarţite in două (manipulaţii si manipulanţii). Despre asta puţin mai târziu.

Chestiunea care stă la baza organizării unui asemenea eveniment constă în altceva. Pentru că, dacă este sa fim subiectivi din punct de vedere al valorii acestei mobilizări, trebuie să recunoaştem că nu neîncrederea în rezultatele votului i-a adus pe tineri în Piaţă. În realitate, sentimentul de disperare, deznădejdea şi indignarea sunt emoţiile care i-au adus pe protestanţi în PMAN (potrivit aceluiaşi articol din NY Times). Toate aceste puncte transmite presiunea de pe relaţia dintre comunist vs. anti-comunist pe relaţia antagonistică dintre tânăra generaţie şi cea vârstnică. Această tensiune dintre nepot si bunel (vehiculată parţial şi în presa occidentală) este una din principalele forţe care a dus la crearea acestei „dezamăgiri” a tinerilor după rezultatele alegerilor.

În acest context, pentru a da o nuanţă de credibilitate în necesitatea unei acţiuni stradale, organizatorii ei trebuiau sa aibă o bază corectă din punct de vedere moral dar şi din cel juridic. O eventuală falsificare a voturilor ar fi fost răspunsul ideal pentru ambele aceste necesitaţi. Foarte brusc, un zvon precum că unele voturi au fost prejudiciate a înconjurat Internetul (prin intermediul furnizorilor de social networking ca si Facebook, Twitter, etc.) într-o maniera bine-cunoscută sub alt nume: telefonul-stricat. Astfel, timp de 10 ore după primele rezultate electorale, s-a ajuns la ferma convingere virtuală că peste 180,000 (!) de oameni decedaţi s-ar fi rătăcit inexplicabil pe listele electorale – nu numai atât – s-a alegat că o mare parte dintre aceştia au şi reuşit să voteze!

Validitatea acestei insinuări devine foarte curând neimportantă. Rolul ei a fost să dea susţinătorilor cel puţin o rază de speranţă că se mai poate schimba ceva (deşi s-a constat că observatorii – inclusiv de la UE, OSCE, CSI – nu au găsit ilegalitaţi majore comise). Respectiv, mişcarea a început de luni cu modeste manifestări de dezamăgire şi sumbre exteriorizări de deznădejde. Luni s-au împrăştiat tinerii pe la case cu încurajări pentru a doua zi, când trebuiau sa vină mai mulţi.

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Liderii Viitorului Parlament

În aşteptarea mea plină de suspans a rezultatelor alegerilor parlamentare din Moldova, am răsfoit versiunile electronice a presei moldoveneşti cu mai mult zaţ decât de obicei. Articolul lui Viorel Mihail din Săptămâna de vinerea asta are multe puncte interesante care merita abordate. Atât în contextul în care aşa-zisele partide democratice confundă de prea multe ori insăşi semnificaţia numelui partidului din care fac parte; cât şi în contextul în care aceste personaje politice de semnificaţie exagerată vor avea de ales între colaborarea optimă cu comuniştii şi pierderea (într-un scenariu tragic de alegeri anticipate) puţinelor voturi abia adunate – Mihail aduce argumente satisfacatoare că paradoxul politic care îi paşte pe democraţii din viitorul parlament este iminent.

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U.S. Home Values Continue Their Free Fall

I stumbled across an article in the March 16th issue of the TIME Magazine that brought up a couple of interesting points about the current economic situation in America. The author of the article, Justin Fox, talks about the good (or, at least, the fairly good) things that come out of any recession. Consequently, he came up with a list of four positive outcomes of the crisis.

  1. The stock market is no longer over-priced. Of course, as prices on stocks fall as a consequence of the general shrinking in “lung capacity” on Wall Street, the investor suddenly finds himself in a better position than, say, two years ago. Given that the promise of the recovery is realistic, the average capitalist could eventually earn a robust profit. The problem is guessing when the market is going to stop falling. Confidence is required for such dismissive action.

  2. The government is on the case. Here, the author merely points to the recent activity that followed the election of a new president. Of course, the worsening of the economy drastically stimulated this stirring, but Obama is to be given credit for much of the action on the matter.

  3. Consumers are adjusting to the new economic reality. This is both a good and a bad thing. Good because it is a reality-check for the (American) consumption machine. People begin realizing that the borrowed money will have to actually be repaid. On the dark side, this increase in savings hurts the economy (consumption being part of the Gross Domestic Product) as it drags the GDP along.

  4. Reinvention and change are what the U.S. is all about. This is a good point in general, not just in the economic sense. Theoretically, when something must be rebuilt anyway, people may as well fix what needed to be fixed for a long time (which, for lack of “inspiration,” or less likely - money - never got done). Remodeling a house to suit its residents’ needs better is much easier to do if the house in question had already gone through a fire: the structural walls are still there, but the rest can be refreshed on the way.

Falling Housing Prices - the Vicious CircleThe fifth point that I wanted to add to Fox’s list relates in a way to the first on the list. The prices on the housing market. Any time there is a recession, the housing market gets hit first (in this case, it was the housing market that was the root of all evil). This however may be beneficial to those people looking for a house. According to the Wall Street Journal, prices have been falling constantly since May of 2006. Now, when the prices are the same as they were in mid-2002, it is expected that they will continue to fall.

Is there a bullish scenario for house prices? Sure. If all the government spending to turn around the economy reignites inflation in a year or two—as some predict—house prices could begin climbing again. But if the current price deflation continues, look for house prices to keep dropping.

It is confidence that is needed get out of the crisis. From home-buyers, to investors, to consumers - all need to regain their confidence in a stable economy. This of course may only be attained in time. Meanwhile, we can continue watching the market for a better bargain.

What Comes Next?

London Protests

Once again, with this year’s G-20 Summit coming up (and the abundance of material for protesting banners) political activists, environmental groups, but also regular people, are all meeting in London to “greet” international leaders.

Protesters gathering on Saturday were calling for jobs, fair distribution of wealth, and a low-carbon future. They carried banners and posters reading “Climate Emergency,” “Gaza: End the Blockade,” “Planet Before Profit,” “We Won’t Pay for Their Crisis,” and “Jobs not Bombs.”

In a preliminary meeting of G-20 officials in Chile on Saturday, Joe Biden asked for patience, and promised to have a concrete plan of recovery out of the economic mess. Needless to say, tensions in Britain and all-over Europe are not going to get mellowed-down by this type of promises. Instead, British protesters follow the general feeling of rage among the taxpayer, from Washington to Brussels.

It is expected that the marches will continue throughout the meeting in London and the rest of Europe next week. The masses, ranging from 400 protesters in Paris, to 20,000 people demonstrating in Frankfurt, are only continuing to grow, and some are expecting the largest amount of enraged people since the huge rallies against the 2003 invasion of Iraq.

It is hard to say exactly what the effect of the protesters will be upon the decisions made within the G-20, but one thing is certain: this allows people to have someone to hold responsible for the crisis. Furthermore, it allows them to collectively show their anger against their governments, and get their voices heard. The only thing that keeps people from rallying the streets in America is Barack Obama, who is still extremely popular among the people, even though not all of them support him in his giant stimulus package.

Veni, Vidi, Vici

limbaugh-mussolini

Apparently, the Republican Party of the United States has ended up in such a vacuum of leadership that the “undeclared” (but apparently very much acknowledged) chief of the GOP has become the quasi-comedic radical radio-host Rush Limbaugh. In one of his speeches on national radio, Limbaugh declared the following jaw-dropping statement:

If I wanted Obama to succeed, I’d be happy the Republicans have laid down. And I would be encouraging Republicans to lay down and support him. Look, what he’s talking about is the absorption of as much of the private sector by the US government as possible, from the banking business, to the mortgage industry, the automobile business, to health care. I do not want the government in charge of all of these things. I don’t want this to work. So I’m thinking of replying to the guy, “Okay, I’ll send you a response, but I don’t need 400 words, I need four: I hope he fails.” (interruption) What are you laughing at? See, here’s the point. Everybody thinks it’s outrageous to say. Look, even my staff, “Oh, you can’t do that.” Why not? Why is it any different, what’s new, what is unfair about my saying I hope liberalism fails? Liberalism is our problem. Liberalism is what’s gotten us dangerously close to the precipice here. Why do I want more of it? I don’t care what the Drive-By story is. I would be honored if the Drive-By Media headlined me all day long: “Limbaugh: I Hope Obama Fails.” Somebody’s gotta say it.

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